Normalcy Bias or “that will never happen”

Normalcy bias is a cognitive behavior where a person has a propensity to underestimate the likelihood of a significant negative event or disaster occurring, as well as dismissing potential impacts if the event were to happen. This bias is based in the assumption that things will continue to operate in the same manner that have in the past, regardless of evidence or indications supporting the contrary.

Typical characteristics of normalcy bias include:

1. Optimistic Bias is often linked to normalcy bias, where an individual is so optimistic that they may believe that they are not as likely to encounter negative events than that of others. Too much of this optimism may lead to a lack of preparedness.
2. A Reluctance to Take Action – People that are influenced by normalcy bias may resist taking proactive actions or preparations towards high-impact events that might not happen. This reluctance can be rooted in a belief that relative events are improbable.
3. Over Dependence upon Familiar Patterns – Individuals with normalcy bias may rely upon familiar patterns or cycles, thinking that the future events will repeat similarly to the past, influencing their ability to adapt to changing circumstances.
4. Minimizing Perception of a Threat – People with normalcy bias often have a tendency to simplify the importance of potential threats or risks. They may think that because a threat has never come about, it is not likely to occur in the future.
5. Desire to Maintain a Sense of Normality – Individuals prone to experiencing normalcy bias often gravitate toward keeping a sense of normality and routine, even when faced with eminent dangers or threats. This may influence inadequate or delayed responses to warnings of impending negative events.

Examples of normalcy bias:

• Living in an earthquake-prone area, regardless of warnings and historical evidence of seismic activity. Belief that a major earthquake is unlikely to occur because it hasn’t happened recently. This bias can lead to lack of awareness, preparedness and relative response in the event of an actual earthquake. Other natural disaster-prone areas also apply (hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, etc.).
• Those in financial distress, will just somehow get by in spite of their spending budget showing otherwise.
• During World War II in Nazi Germany, many Jews hoped and believed that things would return to normal.
• Up until the terrorist attacks on the US of 9/11, many Americans thought that there would never be an attack on US soil. A paradigm shift ensued, leading us to where we are today with heightened awareness, fear, anxiety, TSA and many other adjustments to our society that have been the new normal.
• People in relatively fine health, believe that because they haven’t been seriously ill, sick or injured, that their health will continue to be healthy despite other factors and circumstances. This has been evident over many years with people smoking of tobacco, alcohol consumption and poor diet.
• From a fitness perspective, people often don’t realize how much of their strength, flexibility, coordination, and balance that they may lose as they age. A simple fall or injury may create a paradigm shift in how an individual views their well-being.
• Criminals, illegal drug dealers/user, tax cheats, reckless drivers and others may also fall into the normalcy bias, where they see themselves never being caught, as normal so therefore in their thoughts they will never get caught.

Normalcy bias and cognitive dissonance are two similar but different terms defining psychological behaviors. Normalcy bias is more focused on downplaying the possibility or significance of negative events. Cognitive dissonance is more broad concept associated with the unease caused by conflicting beliefs. Both concepts involve cognitive processes, but pertain to different aspects of cognition and behavior.

In conclusion, normalcy biased can often lead to lack of, or delay of appropriate mental and physical preparedness for potential future events and relative circumstances. Nobody wants to live in fear or anxiety of events that may or may not come about. However, becoming adequately educated and/or informed may help to better manage an individual’s thoughts and relative actions concerning any particular potentially negative event.

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I teach and offer lectures about holistic health, stress management, qigong, tai chi, baguazhang, meditation, phytotherapy (herbs), music for healing, self-massage, and Daoyin (yoga).

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Jim Moltzan

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